Friday 05/29/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Friday 05/29/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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Rob Vinciletti

MLB | May 29
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays -150

On Friday evening the comp play in bases is on the Tampabay Rays.Game 974 at 7:35 eastern.The Rays look to put an end to there current losing streak and come home to face a Minnesota Twins team that is just 5-14 on the road this year.The Twins have struggled as road dogs in this range.Tampa has won 3 of 4 games this year as a home favorite from -125 to -150.They have a big pitching edge with J.Shields.In his home starts Shields has a solid 2.89 era and has pitched very well over his last 3 starts.The Twins send righty S.Baker to the mound and he has struggled on the road this year with a 9.31 era.Tampa hasnt had problems with the bat lately as they are averaging over 7 runs per game over there last 7 games.On Friday I have a solid 6 unit nba play going from 3 solid systems one of which has cashed 26 of 27 times.The Nba has been piping hot all year with top plays cashing over 70% documented.The bases will be on the late report.For the Bonus Play back the Tampabay Rays bol
 
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Marc Lawrence

MLB | May 29
St Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants -122

Play On: San Francisco w/Cain
Note: The Giants entertain the Cardinals when they send surging Matt Cain to to the hill at AT&T Park tonight. Cain has cashed in each of his last four team starts with a 1.61 ERA and is also 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA in his last five starts at home. With the silent St. Louis bats having plated more than 4 runs in only two of its last thirteen games, look for Cain to be ready and able here tonight.
 
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Craig Trapp

MLB | May 29
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds +100

Slow day in sports yesterday, Craig was 1-1 overall. Usually Craig has one Bonus Play and two premium plays but today we are going to have three premium plays so make sure you check them out. Today we go back to MLB for our Bonus Play. Take a look at the records, trends, and winning breakdown from Craig.


Records


Cincinnati Reds 26-20, 13-8 away (Cueto 4-2, 2.37 ERA)


Milwaukee Brewers 27-20, 13-9 home (Looper 4-3, 4.47 ERA)



Betting Trends


-Reds are 4-0 in Cuetos last 4 road starts.


-Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.


-Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.


-Reds are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Milwaukee.



The Reds have been a surprise to most of the league but these young players just don't know any better they want to win. Reds have been without Phillips and Votto the last 3 games and still won all three of them today they are back so watch out. Also Cueto has been great this year and for his career is great against MIL (1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three starts against Milwaukee as a rookie). MIL on the other hand has been struggling scoring lately scoring only 2 runs average in the last six losing all but one of those games. Looper will pitch for MIL today and he has struggled lately giving up over 4 runs in last two games. This year against CIN he has not been good either going 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA in two starts versus the Reds this season. The Reds are top two teams in league on the road and today will show why. Pitching and defense win and CIN dominated in this matchup!! SCORE CIN 6 - MIL 1
 
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Game of the day: L.A. Lakers at Denver Nuggets
By David Chan

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets (-5, 208.5)

The betting line

The Nuggets opened as 6-point favorites, but that line was quickly adjusted to -5. It's the most that Denver has been favored by in this series after laying 4.5 points in Game 4.

The total continues to fluctuate between 208 and 209 points. Four of the first five games in this series have played under and the oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly. Game 1 featured a posted total of 214.

Early money has come in on the Lakers and the over. That's been a constant trend throughout this series.

A little help from his friends

Kobe Bryant didn't have to carry his team to victory in Game 5. His supporting cast finally showed up, with four other players scoring in double figures. Kobe himself scored only 22, his lowest total of the series, but also dished out a series high eight assists.

Kobe said after the game it was all a part of his plan.

“It was a big gamble for me coming in, but I wanted to change my approach this game and be more of a decoy,” Bryant said. “The past couple games they really were loading to my side and I figured I could be a decoy and try to give chances to my teammates.”
Whether it was his call or not, the gameplan worked. Although to the Nuggets’ credit, they were tied entering the fourth quarter.

Bouncing back

The Nuggets have been an excellent bounce-back team in these playoffs, posting a perfect 4-0 record (both straight-up and against the number) after a loss.

Going back to the end of the regular season, they've won and covered in eight consecutive games following a loss.

Carmelo Anthony is confident that his team can keep that streak intact and force a seventh and deciding game.

“We’re excited about this. We’re going home. We got a chance to win at home and see what happens in Game 7.”

Foul trouble

The officials have been major players in the direction of this series - which is nothing new when it comes to the NBA.

Nuggets head coach George Karl wasn't happy with the way Game 5 was called, this one game after Lakers boss Phil Jackson was fined for speaking out about the Game 4 officiating.

“Every player in my locker room is frustrated, from guards to big guys. Gasol goes after at least 20 jump shots, 20 shots to the rim and gets one foul; our big guys have 16. Nene has six fouls, three or four of them don’t exist.”

It remains to be seen whether Karl's comments will have any effect, but the Nuggets certainly can't afford to have Chauncey Billups and Nene in early foul trouble again on Friday.

Facing elimination

The Lakers failed to close out the Rockets on the road in Game 6 last round.

Road teams are just 4-5 straight up in series clinchers prior to Game 7 in the playoffs to date.

Throw in the fact that the Nuggets are 40-9 SU at home this season, including 7-1 in the playoffs, and you have to like their chances of forcing a seventh game.

The question is - can they cover the number?
 
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Los Angeles at Denver, Game 6
By Brad Young

The NBA Western Conference Finals enters the sixth game of this physical series, with Los Angeles holding a 3-2 advantage. The Lakers have never lost a best-of-seven series that was tied at 2-2 after winning a Game 5 since dropping the 1969 NBA Finals against Boston. But Game 6 is another matter entirely.

The Los Angeles-Denver series can almost be broken down into ‘A Tale of Two Cities’ between the top-two seeded teams in the Western Conference.

Top-seeded Los Angeles (76-23 straight up, 51-48 against the spread) is a star-studded franchise that has the second-most NBA championships (14), and leads in NBA Finals appearances (29). The Lakers advanced to the NBA Finals last season before ultimately falling to the Boston Celtics. Los Angeles hasn’t been able to raise a banner at Staples Center since winning three championships in a row from 2000-2002.

Denver, the second-seeded team, has never advanced to the NBA Finals since joining the league in 1976. The Nuggets advanced to the NBA Playoffs last year as an eighth-seed before getting swept by the Lakers in the first round. Denver’s fortunes for this season improved dramatically when they traded controversial guard Allen Iverson for veteran point guard Chauncey Billups.

The Nuggets (64-33 SU, 58-38 ATS) equaled the most wins in franchise history this season, marking the first time in franchise history that they recorded back-to-back 50-win seasons. This was the first year that Denver enjoyed home-court advantage in a playoff series since 1988, and is now playing in its first Western Conference Finals since 1985.

Caesars Palace installed Denver as a five-point ‘chalk’ in Friday’s Game 6, with the total listed at 209. ESPN will provide coverage of this contest beginning at 9:00 p.m. ET from Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado.

Los Angeles and Denver have alternated SU wins and losses in this series after the Lakers prevailed in Wednesday’s Game 5 as a six-point home favorite, 103-94. The combined 197 points failed to eclipse the 209 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 4-1 in this series. Los Angeles has covered two of the past three games in this series, but Denver covered the first two matachups.

The Lakers used a fourth-quarter surge to prevail, improving to 12-3 SU their last 15 games against the Nuggets. The game was tied after each of the first three quarters before Los Angeles went on a 21-3 surge spanning the end of the third quarter and beginning of the fourth.

Coach Phil Jackson’s team was outrebounded by Denver, 43-42, but prevailed by shooting a solid 49 percent (37-of-76) from the field. Shooting guard Kobe Bryant paced the offense with 22 points and eight assists, while power forward Lamar Odom added 19 and 14 rebounds.

Denver connected at a 39-percent clip (32-of-83) from the field, and 29 percent (7-of-24) from behind the arc. Small forward Carmelo Anthony led all scorers with 31 points on 9-of-23 shooting, while Billups contributed 12 and five assists.

Los Angeles is 32-16 SU and 26-22 ATS away from home, with the ‘under’ going 25-22. The Lakers have been winning their road endeavors this season by an average score of 104-100. Los Angeles took Game 3 of this series Saturday as a 3 ½-point road underdog, 103-97, while the combined 200 points failed to eclipse the 212 ½-point closing total.

Denver maintains a stellar 40-9 SU and 31-17 ATS home ledger, with the ‘over’ going 27-21. The Nuggets have been winning their games at Pepsi Center this season by an average score of 108-100. Denver throttled the Lakers in Game 4 of this series Monday as a 4 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 120-101, while the combined 221 points went ‘over’ the 209-point closing total.

Neither team is reporting any players as ‘questionable’ or ‘doubtful’ for this contest.

vegasinsider
 
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Friday, May 29

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LA LAKERS (76 - 23) at DENVER (64 - 33) - 5/29/2009, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
DENVER is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games this season.
DENVER is 115-83 ATS (+23.7 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
DENVER is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents this season.
DENVER is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all playoff games this season.
DENVER is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
DENVER is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DENVER is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
DENVER is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
LA LAKERS are 107-92 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 56-40 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 57-40 ATS (+13.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 40-21 ATS (+16.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 13-7 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 14-6 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
14 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA SHORT SHEET


Wednesday, May 27th


Western Conference Finals
Game Six
LA Lakers Lead, 3-2
LA Lakers at Denver, 9:05 ET

LA Lakers:
24-11 ATS as an underdog
9-1 Under in Conference Finals

Denver:
10-1 ATS at home vs. Pacific Division
20-6 ATS if road underdog last game




NBA WRITE-UP

Friday, May 29

NBA playoffs

Odom had 19 points, 14 boards in Game 5 win; now Lakers go to Finals if they win Game 6 here, where they split Games 3-4. Denver got to the foul line 37-49 times in its two series wins, 35-31-30 in losses, so they have to take ball to basket and make it a foul shooting contest. LA subs kicked Denver's butt in Game 5 (Nugget subs were combined -41). The home team has yet to trail at halftime (4-0-1) in series. Underdog is 6-4 vs spread so far in this round of the playoffs.
 
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Trend Report

9:00 PM
LA LAKERS vs. DENVER
LA Lakers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the LA Lakers last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 12-2-1 ATS in its last 15 games
Denver is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
 
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Friday, May 29

Hot Pitchers
-- Dodgers are 4-0 in Billingsley road starts (2-0, 1.95).
-- Happ allowed two runs un six IP in his first '09, in Bronx. Detwiler is 0-0, 3.27 in his first two major league starts.
-- Cueto is 4-1, 2.16 in his last seven starts.
-- Pelfrey has a 2.70 RA in his last three starts.
-- Marquis is 2-0, 2.20 in his last couple starts. Young is 2-0, 2.07 in his last two starts, but has an 8.03 mark away from Petco Park.
-- Jurrjens is 3-2, 1.98 in his last eight starts.
-- Pineiro has a 1.69 RA in his last two starts. Cain is 2-0, 0.60 in his last two outings.

-- Willis is 1-1, 2.07 in his last two starts.
-- Red Sox won seven of last eight Wakefield starts.
-- Lee has 1.84 RA in his last nine starts but somehow, Indians lost six of his last seven outings.
-- Outman is 2-0, 1.37 in his last three starts. Gonzalez allowed one run in five IP in his only '09 start, vs Arizona. Feldman is 3-0, 2.16 in his last four starts.
-- Royals are 6-1 when Bannister starts (4-1, 3.43). Richard is 1-0, 1.38 in his last two starts.
-- Vargas is 0-0, 2.08 in three starts for Seattle.

Cold Pitchers
-- Lilly is 0-2, 5.40 in his last two starts.
-- Moehler has an 8.10 RA in his last two starts. Ohlendorf is 2-2, 5.47 in his last four starts.
-- West allowed two runs in five IP in his MLB debut, vs Tampa.
-- Looper is 2-3, 6.99 in his last five starts.
-- Garland is 1-2, 6.89 in his last three starts.

-- Bergesen is 0-2, 6.15 in his last six starts.
-- Janssen allowed three runs in six IP in his first '09 start.
-- Pettitte has a 5.89 RA in his last six starts, but Bronx won last three, scoring 20 runs.
-- Baker has a 5.59 RA in his last three starts. Rays lost Shields' last four starts (0-2, 4.85).
-- Hunter was 1-2, 4.82 in four starts at AAA.
-- Lackey has a 6.75 RA in his first three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Dodgers won eight of their last nine road games.
-- Marlins won three of their last four games. Mets won five of six.
-- Reds won their last four games, scoring 24 runs.
-- Padres won 11 of their last 12 games.
-- Arizona is 8-4 in its last twelve games, winning last three.
-- Cardinals won seven of their last nine games. Giants won last three games, allowing total of five runs.

-- Twins won six of their last eight games.
-- Indians won five of their last six games.
-- Orioles won six of their last seven games.
-- Bronx won eight of its last eleven road games.
-- Rangers won nine of last eleven home games. A's won three of last four games, but are 2-6 in last eight on road.
-- White Sox won six of their last nine games.
-- Angels are 8-4 in last 12 home games, but are 1-5 in first game of their last six home series.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Phillies lost six of their last eight home games. Washington is 3-15 in its last eighteen games.
-- Astros lost last seven games, outscored 41-21. Pirates lost five of their last seven games.
-- Brewers lost five of their last six games.
-- Rockies lost their last five home games.
-- Braves lost last four games, outscored 18-5.

-- Red Sox lost six of their last nine road games. Toronto lost its last nine games, but is 13-4 in its last 17 home games.
-- Rays lost their last five games.
-- Detroit lost five of its last seven road games.
-- Royals lost six of their last eight games.
-- Mariners lost ten of their last twelve road games.

Totals
-- Seven of last nine Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-2 in last eight Philadelphia home games.
-- Over is 8-3 in Houston's last eleven road games.
-- Six of last eight Florida road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 11-3 in last fourteen games at Miller Park.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in San Diego's last seven road games.
-- Nine of last twelve Arizona home games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in Giants' last ten home games.

-- Eight of last ten Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Red Sox games.
-- Over is 10-4 in Indians' last fourteen games.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Tampa Bay games.
-- Seven of last eight Oakland road games went over the total.
-- Five of last six White Sox games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Angel home games stayed under the total.
 
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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers
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Streaking

Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta Braves)

The attention of the baseball world is focused on the pitching performances of Zack Greinke and Roy Halladay in the American League while over in the NL, Jair Jurrjens quietly develops into one of the best arms in the majors.

The Braves righty has an ERA just over 2.00 has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his 10 starts this season. Jurrjens' early efforts were spoiled by a lack of run support but now Atlanta's bats are backing him up, scoring 18 runs in his past two appearances. He boasts a 4-2 record despite going six or more innings deep in seven of his 2009 starts.

"I can't say enough about (Jurrjens)," manager Bobby Cox told reporters. "He was outstanding. He deserves better. We're not getting him many runs, that's for sure."

Cliff Lee (Cleveland Indians)

After a bumpy start to the year, Cy Young winner Cliff Lee is beginning to look like his old self. The Indians lefty is just 2-3 in his past eight starts but has given up only 12 total runs in those 58 innings of work. In his most recent start, Lee allowed three runs in six innings but was dealt his third no decision of the season.

Run support has also plagued the Tribe's ace. Cleveland has provided under four runs per start for Lee, whose 3.04 ERA is the seventh-best in the American League.

"You see how guys handle situations like that," Lee told the media about the lack of production. "There is a right way to handle things. I just try to control what I can control. Everything else is pointless to worry about."


Slumping

Bradley Bergesen (Baltimore Orioles)

The Orioles young arm is finding life tough his first year in the bigs. Bergesen is winless since his April 21 debut and has allowed four earned runs in each of his last three starts. The rookie looked impressive to start his last game but fell apart in the middle innings versus the Nationals.

Bergesen doesn't have overwhelming stuff but that hasn't stopped him from going after batters. That recklessness has served up three home runs in his past three games and six total dingers in his seven starts this year.

Debuting

Tommy Hunter (Texas Rangers)

The Rangers are playing two Friday, forcing the club to call up pitcher Tommy Hunter from the minors after Matt Harrison was scratched due to a sore shoulder. The right hander pitched three games for Texas last season, going 0-2 with a disastrous 16.36 ERA.

Hunter is 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in his four starts in Triple-A. His stay in the bigs will be brief. The Rangers are expected to send him back down after Friday's opener and call up a relief pitcher for the night game.
 

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Craig Trapp
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Slow day in sports yesterday, Craig was 1-1 overall. Usually Craig has one Bonus Play and two premium plays but today we are going to have three premium plays so make sure you check them out. Today we go back to MLB for our Bonus Play. Take a look at the records, trends, and winning breakdown from Craig.

Records
Cincinnati Reds 26-20, 13-8 away (Cueto 4-2, 2.37 ERA)
Milwaukee Brewers 27-20, 13-9 home (Looper 4-3, 4.47 ERA)

Betting Trends
-Reds are 4-0 in Cuetos last 4 road starts.
-Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
-Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
-Reds are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Milwaukee.

The Reds have been a surprise to most of the league but these young players just don't know any better they want to win. Reds have been without Phillips and Votto the last 3 games and still won all three of them today they are back so watch out. Also Cueto has been great this year and for his career is great against MIL (1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three starts against Milwaukee as a rookie). MIL on the other hand has been struggling scoring lately scoring only 2 runs average in the last six losing all but one of those games. Looper will pitch for MIL today and he has struggled lately giving up over 4 runs in last two games. This year against CIN he has not been good either going 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA in two starts versus the Reds this season. The Reds are top two teams in league on the road and today will show why. Pitching and defense win and CIN dominated in this matchup!! SCORE CIN 6 - MIL 1
 

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Cajun Sports
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
Miller Park will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the host Milwaukee Brewers and the visiting Cincinnati Reds. The Brewers are coming off a tough nine-game stretch in which they fell out of first place in their division. Thursday was their first day off since May 15th and it was needed as their bats had fallen silent averaging a mere 2 runs per game while losing five of their last six. The loss of second baseman Rickie Weeks for the season due to a wrist injury along with shortstop JJ Hardy missing four games in the past week have led to their offensive struggles. Hardy returned on Wednesday against St. Louis and had three hits in the loss. The combination of his return and the day of rest should help the Brewers overall. Milwaukee is 10-1 W/L their last 11 when playing in the first game of a series. The Reds are 18-36 W/L after a 5+ run win for a profit of $1650 when playing against them in their next contest. The Brewers are active in a MLB system that tells us to Play ON MLB home teams who are coming off a 1 run loss and facing an opponent who is off a 5+ run win in which they had at least ten hits, 31-24 W/L +235. The Reds are 5-14 W/L their last 19 games following a day off. The Brewers are also active in another MLB System that says to Play ON MLB home teams versus a team that has won at least their last three games, 65-30 W/L +2985. The Reds are 1-9 W/L (-7.8) following a win by four or more runs this season. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Brewers win by 1.3 runs over the Reds on Friday night. Finally we have a MLB System that tells us to Play ON home teams coming off a one-run loss in which they left five or more runners on base and had at least five hits versus an opponent coming off a win in their last game, 29-13 W/L +660 this season. Lay the short price with the host as the Brewers end the winning streak of the boys from the Queen City.

Graded Selection: 2* Milwaukee Brewers 4 Cincinnati Reds 2
 

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Dennis Macklin
Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Astros are in a seven-game losing streak freefall and Brian "Fuzzy" Moehler doesn't figure to be much help with his 1-3 and 8.31 ERA pitching resume. Pittsburg's Ross Ohlendorf isn't much but he is 3-0 with a 3.00 at home as the Pirate go to guy at PNC Park. The Astos are already 8-20 in division games and that doesn't figure to improve against usually fiesty Bucs.

Take Pittsburg.
 

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Rob Vinciletti
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
On Friday evening the comp play in bases is on the Tampa Bay Rays.Game 974 at 7:35 eastern.The Rays look to put an end to there current losing streak and come home to face a Minnesota Twins team that is just 5-14 on the road this year.The Twins have struggled as road dogs in this range.Tampa has won 3 of 4 games this year as a home favorite from -125 to -150.They have a big pitching edge with J.Shields.In his home starts Shields has a solid 2.89 era and has pitched very well over his last 3 starts.The Twins send righty S.Baker to the mound and he has struggled on the road this year with a 9.31 era.Tampa hasn't had problems with the bat lately as they are averaging over 7 runs per game over there last 7 games.
 

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Sports Gambling Hotline
LA Lakers at DENVER
Now 5 games in the Western Conference Finals in the books, and 4 of them have played UNDER the posted total.We will use the UNDER once again as our comp play this Friday night.As we pointed out on Wednesday when we gave out a comp play on the LOW, there are just too many trends supporting another UNDER play for us to ignore.The Lakers have now played 8 of their last 9 playoff games UNDER the posted price, and they have played 10 of their last 12 games against the Denver Nuggets UNDER the posted total as well.Game Five fell a dozen points below the posted total, and we feel tonight's Game Six will also stay below the posted price.
Play the LOW in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals.

5♦ UNDER
 

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Bobby Maxwell
Boston at TORONTO +110
Today we're handing out a FREE winner with the Blue Jays as they host the Red Sox in a battle of A.L. East foes.The Blue Jays are back home in Toronto and you can expec their nine-game losing streak to come to an end today. Play them to get the best of the Red Sox and veteran knuckleballer tim Wakefield (6-2, 3.99 ERA).Toronto is going with Casey Janssen (0-1, 4.50 ERA) today after he pitched Saturday in Atlanta and gave up three runs on eight hits in six innings of a 4-3 defeat. It was his first start of the season and he wasn't too bad. Janssen has made eight relief appearances against Boston in his career and he's pitched 7.1 scoreless innings.Boston is just 3-6 in its last nine on the road and 3-6 in its last nine against right-handed starters but they have been tough with Wakefield on the mound this season. Although on the road he is just 22 with a 4.83 ERA in five outings this season.The Blue Jays have won four straight and 13 of 17 at home and they are 43-21 in front of the home fans dating back to last season.Look for Toronto to get back on the winning side tonight as they are patient and get to Wakefield and the Red Sox. Play the Blue Jays in this one.

3♦ TORONTO
 

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Karl Garrett
NY Yankees at CLEVELAND
Another comp play winner from the G-Man last night as the Orlando-Cleveland game goes OVER the posted total.
Now 8-2 the last 10 days with my comp plays.
Another total tonight, this time on the diamond, as I am looking at an UNDER between the Yankees and Indians to start their weekend set.Andy Pettitte has pitched much better away from home this season, as the veteran southpaw is 2-1 in his 4 road starts with an ERA of 2.73.His counterpart Cliff Lee may be just 2-5 for the year, but he does own a 1.75 ERA at Progressive Field over 5 starts this season.Lee also owns a win over the Yankees back in the middle of April, as the Cy Young award winner has allowed only 1 run to New York over his last 13 innings of work.With the Yankees on a 4-1-1 UNDER run their last 6 games, and 5 of the last 7 series meetings played in Cleveland also having stayed UNDER, the G-Man will go UNDER the total tonight.

3♦ UNDER
 

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Chris Jordan
Seattle at ANAHEIM
Got a feeling we're going to see a blowout here. The Angels will come to bat in this one, and right-handed hurler John Lackey will have his best stuff in just his fourth outing of the season. He's already beaten this team once this season, on May 18, so confidence should prevail when Lackey toes the slab tonight.He stretched his last start out to seven innings and 101 pitches last Saturday against the Dodgers, and even left his team with the lead. Unfortunately, the bullpen didn't hold and the Angels lost the game. Nevertheless, he looked good in scattering seven hits and striking out five in the outing.What I like most was his composure when he lost control on the rare occasion. His heater and breaking ball got away a few times, but he handled himself well and pitched with plenty of poise. I think he'll get the run support he'll need against Jason Vargas, who admittedly has been productive as a part of the Mariners' rotation, but could find some trouble in Anaheim. He's tossed three straight quality starts, and the due theory has to come into play at some point for a youngster like this. He could finally show the tentativeness that he's evaded, as he's pitching near his hometown tonight.We're not listing the latter, but we're going to take Lackey for sure, as he's 5-0 in his last five starts against the AL West-rival Mariners, and has given up just six earned runs spanning 36 innings in those outings.
Take the Halos tonight and lay the run line.
 

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John Ryan
Seattle Mariners vs. LAA Angels
Play: LAA Angels
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Anaheim as they host Seattle. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 35-6 making 26.8 units since 1997. Play on home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 and is an average offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs/game facing a good AL starter sporting an ERA<=4.20 and after a combined score of 4 runs or less. Seattle has had to go to the bullpen far too often this season. Angels are a solid 13-6 (+9.6 Units) against the money line versus an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season; 25-12 (+15.3 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 2 seasons. Seattle is a weak 27-53 (-28.5 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. Like so many starters the key for Seattle’s starter Vargas is getting strike one. After 0-1, hitters are batting just 211 with 10 K’s in 38 AB. After 1-0, hitters have 2 HR and 7 BB with just 5 K’s in 33 AB. Anaheim does have hitters wiling to go after the first pitch as well and being aggressive early in the game against Vargas will pay off.
Take Anaheim.
 

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